Saturday, September 1, 2012

Cincinnati at Houston 7:05 p.m. ET

After a big performance by one of their native Texans, the Cincinnati Reds hope La Grange native Homer Bailey can provide a strong showing Saturday night. 

Bailey takes the mound for the Reds, who go for a fifth straight win as they continue their weekend series against the major league-worst Houston Astros. 

Cincinnati opened the series with a 9-3 win Friday behind a three-run homer from Jay Bruce and six solid innings from Mike Leake. 

The Reds (81-52), who are one-half game behind Washington for the majors' best record, increased their lead over St. Louis in the NL Central to a season-high 9 1/2 games. 

Cincinnati is 8-2 against Houston (40-92) this year, winning four straight - all at Minute Maid Park. 

Overall, Bailey is 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA in six career outings against the Astros. He gave up five hits in seven scoreless innings at Houston on July 25, but didn't get a decision in Cincinnati's 5-3 victory. 

Facing the Astros again could be just what Bailey needs to pick up his first win in four starts. He's 0-2 in his last three outings, including an 8-2 loss to St. Louis on Sunday in which he gave up five runs and a season high-tying nine hits over six innings. 

The right-hander will try to hand Houston - which finished August with a 5-22 record - its seventh straight loss. 

One of the few bright spots for the Astros has been Lucas Harrell (10-9, 3.92), who is slated to get the ball Saturday. 

He limited the New York Mets to one run and two hits in seven innings Sunday, but didn't get a decision after Houston lost 2-1. 

The right-hander has a 2.75 ERA over his last nine starts, although Houston has failed to score for him in five of those outings and has lost six of those contests. 

Harrell is 0-1 in two starts against the Reds this season, yielding seven runs over 13 innings while getting two total runs of support. 

Cincinnati second baseman Brandon Phillips, who extended his hitting streak to 10 games with three hits Friday, is 4 for 8 off Harrell.


Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200.
Reds are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Reds are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Reds are 18-6 in their last 24 road games.
Reds are 6-0 in Baileys last 6 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Reds are 10-1 in Baileys last 11 road starts.
Reds are 10-1 in Baileys last 11 starts as a road favorite.

Astros are 3-7 in Harrells last 10 starts.
Astros are 3-9 in Harrells last 12 starts as an underdog.
Astros are 2-7 in Harrells last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Reds are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.
Reds are 5-0 in Baileys last 5 starts vs. Astros.
Over is 5-1 in Baileys last 6 starts vs. Astros.

No reason we dont pound the Reds here. The Astros ace is on the mound today but that only means it should be a low scoring game. I like Harrell as a pitcher but not for the Astros. Poor guy dont have a chance especially when he'll get no run support. Take the Reds ML and RL today. Good Luck
As always shop around...this line varies a lot. 5Dimes has -151 right now.

CIN REDS -151
CIN REDS -1½EV





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