Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Washington at San Francisco 3:45 p.m. ET

Over the past couple of weeks, Tim Lincecum has given the kind of performances the San Francisco Giants were expecting from him this season. 

His recent outings against the Washington Nationals, however, have not been so superb. 

If facing the team with the best record in the majors wasn't enough, Lincecum will also have to square off with Nationals star Stephen Strasburg during Wednesday's series finale at AT&T Park. 

Lincecum, who is 3-2 with a 2.72 ERA in six second-half starts, allowed three runs over seven innings in that game. He's gone at least six innings and allowed three or fewer runs over three consecutive starts for the first time this season. 

Lincecum hasn't had many quality performances over his last four games against the Nationals, going 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA. He gave up a career-high eight runs over 3 1-3 innings in a 9-3 defeat in Washington on July 3. 

The Giants (64-53) will try to help him out this time after an improved performance against the Nationals. San Francisco was routed 14-2 in the series opener but rebounded with a 6-1 win Tuesday. 

Strasburg (13-5, 2.90) will try to help his team end the series on a positive note by winning his third consecutive start. The Nationals (72-45), who are 4 1/2 games ahead of Atlanta in the NL East, could use another strong outing from their right-hander, who might have to miss some games as his team attempts to limit his innings following a recovery from Tommy John surgery. 

Strasburg could make that decision a tough one as he's allowed one run and four hits over 12 innings this month. The latest of those two outings was a 9-1 victory in Arizona on Friday. 

The right-hander won his only start against San Francisco on July 9, 2010, giving up a solo homer and two other hits over six innings while striking out eight. 


Nationals are 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.
Nationals are 15-3 in their last 18 games as a favorite.
Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Nationals are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Nationals are 17-5 in their last 22 games as a road favorite.
Nationals are 11-0 in Strasburgs last 11 starts during game 3 of a series.
Nationals are 6-0 in Strasburgs last 6 Wednesday starts.
Nationals are 13-3 in Strasburgs last 16 road starts.
Nationals are 13-3 in Strasburgs last 16 starts as a road favorite.

Giants are 4-9 in their last 13 home games.
Giants are 2-5 in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Giants are 5-13 in their last 18 during game 3 of a series.
Giants are 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.
Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
Giants are 3-7 in Lincecums last 10 home starts.
Giants are 9-21 in Lincecums last 30 starts.
Giants are 2-5 in Lincecums last 7 starts as a home underdog.
Giants are 2-8 in Lincecums last 10 starts as an underdog.
Giants are 1-4 in Lincecums last 5 Wednesday starts.
Giants are 2-9 in Lincecums last 11 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Giants are 1-5 in Lincecums last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.


Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 5-1 in Lincecums last 6 starts vs. Nationals.
Nationals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in San Francisco.
Nationals are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in San Francisco.
Giants are 1-4 in Lincecums last 5 starts vs. Nationals.

The Freak gets nailed today. That's my prediction. Washington will pound him early and often. I dont see how the game stays under the total of 6.5 nor do i see how the Giants win this one. Timmy having 3 decent games does not constitute an emergency on my part to even remotely believe "He's Back". He is what he is and that don't change in 15 days. If he'd pitched 15 games and gone 10-5 i'd think differently, but that's not the case. On the other side we see Strasburg...yes he's had a couple of streaky games but is certainly a solid pitcher and i have no reason what-so-ever to fade him or believe he's not the better pitcher in this match-up. I honestly believe the line should be -150 but the Giants have surged lately and i think that where the better line comes in to play here. This afternoon we take the Nationals. My big play is the side but i have a little on the 1H and the over too. Good Luck

WAS NATIONALS -115



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