New York has been its usual hard-hitting self offensively, leading the major leagues in home runs with 124. Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano have hit 23 and 20 homers, respectively, leading six Yankees in double figures. The Rays, meanwhile, have leaned heavily on their pitching, particularly a bullpen that has been among baseball’s best all year long. All-Star closer Fernando Rodney has converted 23 of 24 save chances, combining with setup man Joel Peralta to finish off Monday’s victory for starter Matt Moore.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, YES (New York), Sun Sports (Tampa)
PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH Ivan Nova (9-2, 4.03 ERA) vs. Rays RH James Shields (7-5, 4.04 ERA)
Nova slogged his way through a rough start to the season, but he has rounded into form recently by going 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five June starts. He has gone at least seven innings in four of those outings, allowing one run or fewer all four times. Nova is 4-0 in six career starts against the Rays, including a win on May 8 when he allowed two earned runs and struck out eight in seven innings
The up-and-down Shields was dominant in two mid-June starts against Miami, but he has struggled in his last two outings - giving up nine runs and 21 hits in 12 2/3 innings against Philadelphia and Detroit. He lost to Nova on May 8 and was defeated again in New York on June 5, falling to 5-13 with a 4.55 ERA in 23 lifetime starts against the Yankees.
WALK-OFFS
1. New York has struggled mightily in Tampa, but it has still won nine of its last 11 road games overall.
2. Teixeira is just 6-for-48 with 15 strikeouts against Shields, but Cano has hit the Rays right-hander extremely hard. Cano is 27-for-65 with four homers, two triples and seven doubles.
3. Tampa Bay hitters are a combined 20-for-118 (.169) against Nova, with Matt Joyce (1-for-15, five strikeouts) and 1B Carlos Peña (1-for-9, four strikeouts) having a particularly tough time.
FAVORING TAMPA BAY
 - Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL).(359-231 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.8%, +90.5 units. Rating = 2*) |
| - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season. (85-49 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.4%, +47.5 units. Rating = 3*) |
| - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL). (77-52 since 1997.) (59.7%, +40.1 units. Rating = 3*) |
| - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL). (51-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.2%, +33 units. Rating = 3*) |
| - Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games. (137-94 over the last 5 seasons.) (59.3%, +43.4 units. Rating = 2*) |
| - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start, playing on Tuesday. (29-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (69%, +19 units. Rating = 2*) |
FAVORING YANKEES
| - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season, after a game where their bullpen blew a save. (293-214 since 1997.) (57.8%, +80.4 units. Rating = 2*) |
| - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season, after a game where their bullpen blew a save. (185-116 since 1997.) (61.5%, +74 units. Rating = 3*) |
| - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season. (101-35 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.3%, +45.1 units. Rating = 3*) |
| - Any team (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season. (133-69 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.8%, +49 units. Rating = 2*) |
FAVORING THE OVER
| Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (NY YANKEES) - after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games. (87-45 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.9%, +39.5 units. Rating = 3*) |
| Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (NY YANKEES) - after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games. (57-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.4%, +31.8 units. Rating = 3*) |
| Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (NY YANKEES) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. (32-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.4%, +20.6 units. Rating = 2*) |
| Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (NY YANKEES) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (96-51 since 1997.) (65.3%, +42.9 units. Rating = 3*) |
PITCHERS
NOVA is 10-0 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NOVA 5.1, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 3*)
| IVAN NOVA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997 | ||
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| JAMES SHIELDS vs. NY YANKEES since 1997 | ||
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HEAD-TO-HEAD
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YANKEES WIN THIS ONE
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