Saturday, July 14, 2012

(Saturday) Los Angeles (48-38) at New York (52-33), 1:05 p.m. EDT

The New York Yankees may own the best record in baseball, but even they are having trouble keeping Mark Trumbo in the ballpark. 

Fortunately, New York has Mark Teixeira swinging a hot bat of his own. 

While Trumbo continues his surge for the Los Angeles Angels, Teixeira will try to continue his own hot hitting Saturday as the Yankees go for a sixth win in seven games. 

New York (53-33) has built an eight-game AL East lead over second-place Baltimore, and has won five of six after beating Los Angeles 6-5 on Friday to begin the season's second half. 

While the Yankees have also won five of their last six home meetings with the Angels (48-39), they're struggling against Trumbo, who is trying to become the only player since at least 1920 to homer in six consecutive games against them. 

Trumbo, who appeared in his first All-Star game debut Tuesday, is 11 for 20 with 10 RBIs over his last five games against the Yankees, while matching the opponent home run streaks of Albert Belle (1994) and Harold Baines (1984-85). 

Trumbo went 2 for 4 with a three-run shot Friday, but Teixeira connected for a pair of homers of his own while driving in five runs in the opener of this three-game set. He is batting .370 with four homers and 15 RBIs in his last seven games overall, and is 8 for 22 with three homers in his last six versus the Angels. 

Freddy Garcia (3-2, 5.23) is 6-0 with a 2.49 ERA in his last nine starts against Los Angeles, including a victory with the Chicago White Sox in the decisive Game 5 of the 2005 AL championship series. The right-hander struggled in his only start for the Yankees in that stretch, surrendering five runs in five innings while not getting a decision in New York's 6-5 win last Sept. 11. 

Garcia is coming off his best start of 2012, yielding one run in 6 2-3 innings of a 6-1 win at Boston last Saturday. He has a 2.25 ERA in two outings since rejoining the rotation after going 0-2 with a 12.51 ERA in his first four starts of the season, prompting a move to a relief role. 

The Angels are expected to activate Jerome Williams (6-5, 4.46) from the disabled list for his first start since a 5-3 loss to San Francisco on June 18. He allowed four runs, seven hits and three walks in 3 1-3 innings, then suffered an asthma attack and was taken to the hospital. 

The right-hander made two rehab starts for Triple-A Salt Lake, allowing three runs over six innings in the most recent. 

He lost his last three outings with a 7.56 ERA for Los Angeles before landing on the DL. 

Williams' only career meeting with the Yankees was an 11-5 road defeat April 15, when he surrendered five runs in 2 2-3 innings. 

The Angels are trying to avoid a fourth straight road loss. 


Head To Head
LA ANGELS is 11-13 (+0.8 Units) against NY YANKEES over the last 3 seasons
NY YANKEES is 8-4 (+1.3 Units) against LA ANGELS over the last 3 seasons
NY YANKEES is 3-1 (+1.8 Units) against LA ANGELS this season in NY

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in New York.
Angels are 5-16 in the last 21 meetings in New York.



Angels W/L Trends

Angels are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss.
Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Angels are 16-6 in their last 22 road games.
Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Angels are 1-5 in Williams' last 6 road starts.


Yankees W/L Trends

Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Yankees are 24-8 in their last 32 games as a favorite.
Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 home games.
Yankees are 25-9 in their last 34 overall.

Yankees are 4-0 in Garcias last 4 starts vs. American League West.
Yankees are 4-1 in Garcias last 5 Saturday starts.
Yankees are 1-4 in Garcias last 5 starts as a favorite.





Pitchers against Team
WILLIAMS is 0-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 16.85 and a WHIP of 2.996.
GARCIA is 16-4 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 2.80 and a WHIP of 1.083.


Once again we will go with the better team, the better pitcher and the team who is simply dominating the game right now even when they're down. Line is obviously higher from yesterday but I still believe we have plenty of value here. I see the line from -130 up to -145. I got it at -138 so i'm happy. Take New York. 


NY YANKEES -138


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