Kansas City at Seattle 4:10 p.m. EDT

Quick Note: Some questions as to why i play dogs or "tight games". Tight games being games with close lines. Look if you think playing -150 or -170 is giving you better odds of winning you should really re-think your strategy of betting baseball. You play those heavy lines and you wont last long - plus you have to hit a much higher % of winners just to break even. For whatever reason the games i'm putting on my blog are not hitting high % right now but overall my plays have made some nice cash. 62-44-2 and +23.86 units in the last 6 weeks. (Since i started posting on Twitter) That's based on 1 unit. Hopefully i start picking a better game from my card to do write-ups on. Good Luck




A matchup with the slumping Kansas City Royals would appear to give Kevin Millwood just the opportunity he needs to snap a lengthy winless streak. 

The Seattle right-hander, though, will have to square off with Bruce Chen, who has pitched well in his recent games against the Mariners, during Saturday's game at Safeco Field. 

Seattle (45-57) has eight wins in its past 12 games in part because it's gotten plenty of chances to face Kansas City. Since July 15, the Mariners have won five of six against the Royals (41-58). 

John Jaso homered and drove in a season-high four runs in the latest of those wins, 6-1 on Friday. Mike Carp added a solo shot and is 5 for 8 with three RBIs during this series. 

Jaso is batting .345 over his last 21 games and has the best average among Mariners regulars at .288. 

The Royals, meanwhile, have scored a combined two runs in this series and Billy Butler has four of his team's six hits. He had two singles during Kansas City's 19th loss in 25 games and 12th in 15 road contests. 

Millwood (3-8, 4.13 ERA) is hoping to get similar support from the Mariners in this game and earn his first win since May 23. The veteran is 0-4 with a 4.56 ERA over those 10 starts and has received a combined 19 runs of support. 

He took the loss in a 4-1 defeat to the New York Yankees on Monday after allowing three runs over seven innings. 

To end his drought, Millwood will likely need a better performance than in Kansas City on July 18. He gave up seven runs and a season-high 10 hits over five innings during Seattle's 8-7 loss. 

The opposing pitcher for that game was Chen (7-8, 5.54), who surrendered four runs in 5 1-3 innings while not factoring in the decision. The left-hander is 0-2 with a 9.25 ERA over his last five starts but had one of his best performances in that stretch Monday on the road against the Los Angeles Angels, allowing three runs and five hits over 5 1-3 innings. 

Chen is 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA in eight career starts against the Mariners and 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA over three in Seattle. The most recent of those visits was on Aug. 7, 2010. 

Millwood is 0-2 with a 5.16 ERA in his last five matchups with Kansas City. 


Royals are 4-9 in their last 13 games following a loss.
Royals are 7-19 in their last 26 overall.

Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Royals are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
Royals are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Royals are 1-7 in their last 8 road games.

Royals are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a road underdog.

Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Royals are 2-5 in Chens last 7 starts vs. American League West.
Royals are 1-4 in Chens last 5 starts.
Royals are 1-5 in Chens last 6 road starts.
Royals are 1-5 in Chens last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Royals are 0-6 in Chens last 6 starts as an underdog.
Royals are 0-5 in Chens last 5 starts as a road underdog.

Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League Central.
Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
Mariners are 1-4 in Millwoods last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Mariners are 0-6 in Millwoods last 6 starts.


Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Seattle.
Royals are 4-0 in Chens last 4 starts vs. Mariners.
Royals are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in Seattle.
Royals are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.

Under is 5-0 in last 5 games with Jordan Baker behind home plate.
Home team is 4-1 in Jordan Bakers last 5 games behind home plate.

Millwood is the weak link here even though he's actually a descent pitcher. The best thing Seattle has for them right now is the fact they are hitting better plus they're at home. Millwood has a great shot today at redemption and i believe he will take it. Chen on the other hand has been a little worse than Millwood, as per the numbers. He's also getting no run support from his team which make a win even more unlikely. The better team is Seattle here so today we take them at home to win against the weary no-scoring boys from Kansas City. I'm also playing a little on the RL -1½+180....this has cashed the last 2 games. 


SEA MARINERS -105

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