Chad Billingsley vs Barry Zito

Chad Billingsley last 3 starts 4.00 ERA and 1.222 WHIP (last 5 is much worse)



Dodgers are 2-5 in Billingsleys last 7 starts as a favorite.
Dodgers are 2-5 in Billingsleys last 7 starts vs. National League West.
Dodgers are 2-6 in Billingsleys last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Dodgers are 1-4 in Billingsleys last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Dodgers are 1-5 in Billingsleys last 6 starts.
Dodgers are 1-5 in Billingsleys last 6 starts on grass.
Dodgers are 1-7 in Billingsleys last 8 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Dodgers are 0-5 in Billingsleys last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Dodgers are 1-4 in Billingsleys last 5 starts vs. Giants.
Dodgers are 0-5 in Billingsleys last 5 road starts vs. Giants.

Billingsley has less innings pitched but with more hits, runs, earned runs, and walks against him than Zito who has pitched in the same.

Dodgers are third best in the league in times striking out with 7.3 per game.
Dodgers are second best in the league in giving up hits, allowing 7.9 per game.


Barry Zito last 3 starts 3.32 ERA and 1.053 WHIP


Giants are 6-1 in Zitos last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
Giants are 4-1 in Zitos last 5 starts vs. National League West.
Giants are 7-2 in Zitos last 9 starts as a home underdog.
Giants are 1-4 in Zitos last 5 starts vs. Dodgers.

Giants are second best in K's per game with 6.9.
Giants allow the third least hits in the league at 8.0 per game.

I really think Zito and the Gianrts have the advantage here and i believe the line is off just because Billingsley is getting way too much love. I'm not buying it - Giants is the play.

Kansas City at Seattle 4:10 p.m. EDT

Quick Note: Some questions as to why i play dogs or "tight games". Tight games being games with close lines. Look if you think playing -150 or -170 is giving you better odds of winning you should really re-think your strategy of betting baseball. You play those heavy lines and you wont last long - plus you have to hit a much higher % of winners just to break even. For whatever reason the games i'm putting on my blog are not hitting high % right now but overall my plays have made some nice cash. 62-44-2 and +23.86 units in the last 6 weeks. (Since i started posting on Twitter) That's based on 1 unit. Hopefully i start picking a better game from my card to do write-ups on. Good Luck




A matchup with the slumping Kansas City Royals would appear to give Kevin Millwood just the opportunity he needs to snap a lengthy winless streak. 

The Seattle right-hander, though, will have to square off with Bruce Chen, who has pitched well in his recent games against the Mariners, during Saturday's game at Safeco Field. 

Seattle (45-57) has eight wins in its past 12 games in part because it's gotten plenty of chances to face Kansas City. Since July 15, the Mariners have won five of six against the Royals (41-58). 

John Jaso homered and drove in a season-high four runs in the latest of those wins, 6-1 on Friday. Mike Carp added a solo shot and is 5 for 8 with three RBIs during this series. 

Jaso is batting .345 over his last 21 games and has the best average among Mariners regulars at .288. 

The Royals, meanwhile, have scored a combined two runs in this series and Billy Butler has four of his team's six hits. He had two singles during Kansas City's 19th loss in 25 games and 12th in 15 road contests. 

Millwood (3-8, 4.13 ERA) is hoping to get similar support from the Mariners in this game and earn his first win since May 23. The veteran is 0-4 with a 4.56 ERA over those 10 starts and has received a combined 19 runs of support. 

He took the loss in a 4-1 defeat to the New York Yankees on Monday after allowing three runs over seven innings. 

To end his drought, Millwood will likely need a better performance than in Kansas City on July 18. He gave up seven runs and a season-high 10 hits over five innings during Seattle's 8-7 loss. 

The opposing pitcher for that game was Chen (7-8, 5.54), who surrendered four runs in 5 1-3 innings while not factoring in the decision. The left-hander is 0-2 with a 9.25 ERA over his last five starts but had one of his best performances in that stretch Monday on the road against the Los Angeles Angels, allowing three runs and five hits over 5 1-3 innings. 

Chen is 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA in eight career starts against the Mariners and 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA over three in Seattle. The most recent of those visits was on Aug. 7, 2010. 

Millwood is 0-2 with a 5.16 ERA in his last five matchups with Kansas City. 


Royals are 4-9 in their last 13 games following a loss.
Royals are 7-19 in their last 26 overall.

Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Royals are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
Royals are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Royals are 1-7 in their last 8 road games.

Royals are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a road underdog.

Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Royals are 2-5 in Chens last 7 starts vs. American League West.
Royals are 1-4 in Chens last 5 starts.
Royals are 1-5 in Chens last 6 road starts.
Royals are 1-5 in Chens last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Royals are 0-6 in Chens last 6 starts as an underdog.
Royals are 0-5 in Chens last 5 starts as a road underdog.

Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League Central.
Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
Mariners are 1-4 in Millwoods last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Mariners are 0-6 in Millwoods last 6 starts.


Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Seattle.
Royals are 4-0 in Chens last 4 starts vs. Mariners.
Royals are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in Seattle.
Royals are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.

Under is 5-0 in last 5 games with Jordan Baker behind home plate.
Home team is 4-1 in Jordan Bakers last 5 games behind home plate.

Millwood is the weak link here even though he's actually a descent pitcher. The best thing Seattle has for them right now is the fact they are hitting better plus they're at home. Millwood has a great shot today at redemption and i believe he will take it. Chen on the other hand has been a little worse than Millwood, as per the numbers. He's also getting no run support from his team which make a win even more unlikely. The better team is Seattle here so today we take them at home to win against the weary no-scoring boys from Kansas City. I'm also playing a little on the RL -1½+180....this has cashed the last 2 games. 


SEA MARINERS -105

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Saturday's betting notes

Weather watch

Thunderstorms are threatening baseball’s greatest rivalry with a 54 percent chance of rain for Yankee Stadium when the Red Sox visit the Bronx Bombers this afternoon.

Who’s hot?

Cincinnati Reds – Even without slugger Joey Votto in the lineup, the Reds have won eight in a row and head into Saturday’s showdown with the Colorado Rockies at -157 road chalk.

Who’s not?

Houston Astros – If you’re still banking on the Astros to turn it around, perhaps you should try another hobby other than sports betting. Houston has lost 11 in a row heading into Saturday’s dust-up against the Pirates.

Key stat

.395 - Los Angeles 1B Albert Pujols is hitting .395 (17-for-43) with 11 RBIs over his last 11 games. The Angels are 6-4-1 over/under in that span.

Game of the day

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-179, 9)

Injury not to be overlooked

Josh Reddick, Oakland A’s – The Athletics right fielder suffered a contusion after colliding with the outfield wall while making a game-ending catch in Friday’s win over Baltimore. He was carted off the field and is listed as day-to-day. Reddick has been a sparkplug for the A’s incredible July run, batting .271 with a team-high 22 home runs and 49 RBIs this year.

Notable quotable

"We understand what they did for our game, but we also are big-time competitors as well so if we had the opportunity to play them in a game, we feel like we would win too.” – U.S.A. forward LeBron James, talking about the 1992 U.S.A. Olympic “Dream Team”.

News and notes

-- Olympic planners are frantically trying to use air conditioners to cool the pool complex down which has had temperatures climb to as high as 85 degrees. Coaches and swimmers are complaining about the heat and a warning has been sent to those fans holding tickets for swimming events. The much-hyped 400-meter individual medley is being held at the complex Saturday, featuring the showdown between Americans Michael Phelps (+125) and Ryan Lochte (-120). Phelps barely qualified for the eighth spot in tonight’s gold-medal final.

-- The Yankees have hit 19 homers and outscored the Red Sox 59-35 this season. The AL East rivals have combined for a 5-2 over/under mark in their seven meetings, including Friday’s 10-3 Yankees win that topped the 10-run total.

-- San Francisco has scored at least three runs in 12 of its 13 games since the All-Star break. The Giants are 9-4 with a 7-6 over/under record in that span.

-- The Pirates continue to kill the ball on the road. They’ve hit at least one home run in 17 straight away contests and own a 26-21-3 over/under mark on the road this season.

-- Heading into this weekend’s Crown Royal 400, Chevrolet has a nine-race win streak at Indianapolis Motor Speedway that began in 2003 – the longest current manufacturer streak at any track on the Sprint Cup schedule. Race favorites Jimmy Johnson (+600) and Tony Stewart (+800) both drive Chevys.

Options dwindling for Rangers

With the division rival Los Angeles Angels acquiring right-hander Zack GreinkeFriday, the options for the two-time defending American League champs is down to a chosen few. With Colby Lewis out for the year, Derek Hollandstruggling to grab hold of the No. 2 spot in the rotation and Roy Oswaltbattling back issues, the Rangers appear to be the contender with the greatest need.

Greinke joins Cole Hamels as two impact starting pitchers now off the market, leaving the likes of Josh Johnson and James Shields as the top two remaining -- if the Rays are even up for dealing Shields. Shields' struggles may put the club in a position where they would be selling low, and GM Andrew Friedman can always trade Shields this time next year.

The asking price for Johnson appears set much higher than Greinke, who fetched the Brewers shortstop prospect Jean Segura and two Double-A starting pitching prospects -- John Hellweg and Ariel Pena -- and rightfully so, as Johnson is not set to hit the free agent market until after 2013 whereas Greinke's contract expires after this season.

The Rangers could hold out hope that the Phillies are willing to trade Cliff Lee, but indications earlier this week suggested that the club had no intention of trading the lefty. Matt Garza, one of two Cubs right-hander on the block, is unlikely to be moved after injuring his triceps and having his next start pushed back until at least late next week -- after the trade deadline.

Yankees in 3B market now?

New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez is on the disabled list with a broken bone in his wrist after being struck by a pitch from Felix HernandezTuesday night in Seattle.

The injury will sideline Rodriguez for six to eight weeks, forcing manager Joe Girardi turn to Eric Chavez and Jayson Nix to fill in at third. But is there a replacement to be traded for?

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweeted Wednesday that the Yankees and Padres had not yet talked about Chase Headley, but that such a conversation will be taking place soon.

After Chavez, who has a steep injury history as it is, was hit by a pitch Friday versus Boston, the veteran stiffened up, Girardi told the media.

If the Yankees were to land Headley, he'd likely man third base through this season and next year, he'd either move to left field or stay at third base while the Yankees move Rodriguez to more a full-time DH role.

CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman, though, writes that the price is too high for Headley, since the Yanks are looking more for a temporary fill-in who can platoon with Chavez and Nix. Heyman mentions Ty Wigginton as a possibility.

Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Streaking

Jordan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals (7-6, 2.31 ERA)
There hasn’t been a more consistent starter in the month of July than Zimmerman. He hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in each of his last six starts and boasts a ridiculous 0.87 ERA for the month. It’s hard to believe he won’t continue to dominate in his next outing against the ice-cold Brewers. 

Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds (12-5, 2.23 ERA)

Cueto has the lowest ERA in the NL and has picked up wins in each of his last three starts. At this point in the season, Cueto has to be considered as one of the frontrunners for the NL Cy Young Award. He has a chance to continue that momentum against the struggling Rockies.

Slumping

Henderson Alvarez, Toronto Blue Jays (6-7, 4.61 ERA) 

With fireballer Brandon Morrow on the mend, Alvarez could get the boot from the rotation if he doesn’t have a strong outing against the Tigers. Alvarez allowed seven runs on eight hits over 5 2-3 innings pitched in his last start against Boston, but somehow walked away with the victory thanks to a disgraceful performance from the Red Sox pitching staff. He’s allowed 14 earned runs in just 17 innings in July.

Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox (5-8, 5.46 ERA)

Lester’s last three starts have been an absolute disaster. The lefty got booed off the mound at Fenway Park after the Blue Jays roughed him up for 11 runs in just four innings Sunday. His previous two starts against the White Sox and Yankees were equally as dreadful. Add up Lester’s July numbers and the results are staggering. Hold your breath - 22 earned runs and a 10.42 ERA in just 17 innings pitched.

Washington at Milwaukee 8:10 p.m. EDT

A red-hot offense has sparked the Washington Nationals' latest surge, propelling the club 20 games over .500 for the first time since 1994. 

Although runs could be hard to come by against the Milwaukee Brewers' Mike Fiers, their winning streak seems safe. 

The NL East-leading Nationals seek a seventh straight victory Friday against Fiers, who owns baseball's best ERA over the last six weeks with little to show for it. 

Washington (59-39) won Thursday's opener 8-2 to snap an eight-game losing streak at Miller Park and match its longest winning streak of the season. The Nationals are tied with the New York Yankees for baseball's best record and have a five-game lead over Atlanta in the division. 

The Nationals, who won eight in a row last June, are averaging 6.7 runs during their current winning streak with Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche and Michael Morse leading the way. 

LaRoche has homered in three straight games and is batting .421 with six RBIs during a five-game hitting streak, while Morse, who drove in two runs in the opener, is hitting .364 with two homers and five RBIs in his last five. 

Fiers (3-4, 1.96 ERA), who in seven games - six starts - since July 16, has a major league-best 0.76 ERA. He gave up two runs and five hits in six innings against Cincinnati on Sunday. 

Despite recording his sixth consecutive quality start, the rookie right-hander was saddled with a 2-1 loss, leaving him with a 2-2 record in those games. The Brewers have scored one run or less in three straight and four of his last five starts. 

While the Nationals are racing toward the franchise's first playoff berth since 1981, defending NL Central champion Milwaukee (44-54) has lost a season-high seven straight and is 14 games behind first-place Cincinnati. 

The Brewers, who are almost certainly going to deal ace Zack Greinke before Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline, are trying to avoid their longest losing streak since a nine-game slide from May 10-19, 2010. 

Thursday's defeat dropped Milwaukee to 26-24 at Miller Park, matching last season's loss total there. The Brewers had a major league-best 57 home wins in 2011. The Nationals, meanwhile, currently own the majors' best road record at 31-20. 

Even Ryan Braun hasn't been immune to Milwaukee's struggles at Miller Park, batting .118 with one RBI in his last five games there. The reigning league MVP is, however, hitting .421 with five homers in his last 19 at-bats against left-handers, and he'll be facing one Friday in Ross Detwiler (5-3, 3.01). 

Detwiler allowed two runs and seven hits in seven innings in Sunday's 9-2 win over Atlanta, his first victory as a starter since May 3. Although he hadn't picked up a win in nine starts, he also hasn't lost in his last six. The Nationals have won his last four outings, and he has a 0.64 ERA in his last two. 

In his only appearance against the Brewers on July 25, 2010, Detwiler allowed five unearned runs in 3 2-3 innings. 



Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog.

Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Nationals are 5-0 in Detwilers last 5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Nationals are 4-0 in Detwilers last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Nationals are 4-0 in Detwilers last 4 starts.

Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a loss.
Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 0-7 in their last 7 overall.
Brewers are 0-8 in their last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Brewers are 1-4 in Fiers' last 5 home starts.
Brewers are 1-4 in Fiers' last 5 starts.


While i do believe Fiers is a good pitcher i also believe Washington is on fire right now and it would be crazy not to take them as a dog in this fight. The Brewers bats are not what they once were which mean they aren't scoring while the Nationals are. This one seems easy to me. Take the Nationals +125 and sit back and watch a good game. Shop around for that line. 5Dimes and a couple more still have it. Also - Consider the ALT RL here at -1½+180.


WAS NATIONALS +125

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