Tuesday, July 3, 2012

*Marlins-Brewers Preview*




Miami (38-40) at Milwaukee (36-42), 4:10 p.m. EDT 

Continued success against the Miami Marlins has the Milwaukee Brewers in position to match their longest winning streak of the season. 

The Brewers look for a fourth straight victory overall and their 10th in a row over the Marlins on Tuesday afternoon at Miller Park. 

Miami (38-41) had won four in a row, but could not hold an early three-run lead and lost 6-5 in Monday's series opener. Pinch-hitter Norichika Aoki delivered the go-ahead run for Milwaukee with a safety squeeze in the eighth inning to help the Brewers win their third in a row since losing five of six. 

"My confidence in (Aoki) is really good," said Milwaukee manager Ron Roenicke, whose team has won nine of 12 at Miller Park. "I know he's going to get the job done." 

The Brewers (37-42), who won four straight May 28-31, are averaging 6.0 runs during their nine-game winning streak over the Marlins that dates to a 4-0 home loss Sept. 25, 2010. That is also Miami's only victory in its last 11 games in Milwaukee, where it's dropped five in a row. 

Struggling Milwaukee second baseman Rickie Weeks went 1 for 2 with an RBI and scored Monday's eventual winning run. The former All-Star is batting .187 this season, but he is 9 for 22 (.409) with five RBIs in his last six games against the Marlins. 

Marco Estrada (0-3, 4.50 ERA) takes the mound for the Brewers in his second start since coming off the disabled list from a quadriceps strain. The right-hander, who missed almost a month with the injury, returned last Tuesday and gave up three runs - all on a homer - and struck out a career-high 12 in six innings of a 4-3 loss at Cincinnati. 

Despite the home run, Roenicke was encouraged by Estrada's return. 

"Really good," Roenicke told the Brewers' official website. "Good command, great change of speeds." 

Estrada has made five appearances against the Marlins, but in his only start versus Miami he allowed five runs and walked three in 2 1-3 innings of an 11-3 loss Sept. 12, 2009, while with Washington. 

Justin Ruggiano, who singled in his only career at-bat versus Estrada, stayed hot Monday by hitting a two-run homer and driving in four runs for Miami. The outfielder is 9 for 17 with seven RBIs in his last five games. 

"As long as he plays like that, he's going to be out there," manager Ozzie Guillen told the Marlins' official website. 

Miami starter Anibal Sanchez (4-6, 3.94) looks for a second straight win in this contest. The right-hander was 0-3 with an 8.06 ERA in his previous four starts before he allowed three runs in seven innings of a 5-3 win over St. Louis on Wednesday. 

"If I keep the score close, I think they can pick me up," Sanchez said. 

He is 2-1 with a 4.73 ERA in six career starts versus Milwaukee. 


Trends Favoring Brewers

 - Any team (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (NL), with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (NL).
(179-149 since 1997.) (54.6%, +64.3 units. Rating = 2*)
 - Any team (MIAMI) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20)-NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL.
(191-147 since 1997.) (56.5%, +62.9 units. Rating = 2*)
 - Any team (MILWAUKEE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (46 to 49%).
(119-75 since 1997.) (61.3%, +47.3 units. Rating = 2*)
 - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20)-NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL.
(100-57 since 1997.) (63.7%, +41.1 units. Rating = 2*)
 - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (MIAMI) - team with a poor OBP (<=.310) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.250) -NL, with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season.
(45-28 since 1997.) (61.6%, +19.9 units. Rating = 1*)


Trends Favoring Marlins 

 - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL.
(124-83 since 1997.) (59.9%, +49.7 units. Rating = 2*)
 - Any team (MIAMI) - team with a poor OBP (<=.310) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.250) -NL, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts.
(30-18 since 1997.) (62.5%, +29.8 units. Rating = 3*)



Strong Trends

MILWAUKEE is 45-13 (+28.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. 
The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 3*) 



HEAD-TO-HEAD

Games over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 12-4 (+8.0 Units) against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.7 Units)
Games this season
MILWAUKEE is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against MIAMI this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

All games at MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 7-1 (+5.6 Units) against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.8 Units)
Games played at MILWAUKEE this season.
MILWAUKEE is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against MIAMI this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)



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